The famous opening line of A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens is: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The residential real estate market for McLean and Great Falls in 2009 has a similar theme, depending on the price range. I shall now tell “A Tale of Two Markets” and my opening line is: It is the best of times in McLean and Great Falls for homes priced under $1.25 million and it is the worst of times for those priced above.
In McLean and Great Falls the overall number of transactions went up in 2009 by 14.1% over 2008. However, the significance of “A Tale of Two Markets” is evident when broken down by price range. The number of sales under $1.25 million is up by 25.9% which is the “best of times”, and the number of sales over $1.25 million is down by 18% which is the “worst of times”.
In my view, the reason the upper bracket market (anything over $1.25 million) has suffered so much in 2009 is twofold. First is the issue of mortgage funding. It is perhaps obvious and may go without saying, but everyone is not independently wealthy and can pay cash for a home in McLean or Great Falls. Most home purchasers have to obtain financing from a lender. In this market area, the upper limit for Conforming loans from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae for 2009 (and continuing for 2010) is $729,750. If you add the typical buyers’ down payment of 20% to the maximum conforming loan amount of $729,750 you get about $900,000 as the purchasing power for the majority of buyers in the market. To purchase anything over $900,000 means that the buyer would have to come up with a larger down payment and/or pay higher jumbo rates. Other mortgage options are only now coming out allowing for financing up to $1 million, with 20% down, yielding maximum purchasing power of typically $1.25 million in 2009. Even today, the best mortgage option is 15% down payment up to a purchase price of $1.47 million. Any purchase price above that usually requires a larger cash down payment. Further, once the loan is greater than $1 million, the interest on the portion of the loan over $1 million is not tax deductible (always check with your tax advisor for specifics).
The second issue is supply. There are fundamentally fewer buyers for the upper bracket homes, therefore that supply hasn’t been absorbed and continues to not be absorbed by the market. Thus, inventory continues to build. Basic economics underscores that when there is more supply than demand, prices go down.
From year end data as illustrated by the chart below, homes that would have sold for over $3 million in 2008, probably sold between $2 to $3 million in order to find a buyer. The homes that sold between $2 and $3 million in 2008 moved to the lower end of that range or sold below $2 million in order to be able to sell. And down it went.
What is my prediction for 2010? I believe that it will be more of the same. While I feel that we are at the bottom of the trough in the under $1.25 Million market in McLean and Great Falls, I anticipate that we will not recover the prices of the peak of the market until at least 2012 or 2013, if even then.
One of the themes of A Tale of Two Cities is the plight of the peasantry under the aristocracy which led up to the revolution. “A Tale of Two Markets” has a similar theme in my view. Housing prices escalated in 2004-2006 to levels that even the average affluent person couldn’t afford. The fundamental reality is that not everyone is independently wealthy. As long as the majority of the buyers in the market are dependent on obtaining financing at the Conforming loan level, the upper bracket real estate market will be obtainable to only a very few and is dependent on what financing the banks can offer. When there is a limited pool of qualified buyers in one portion of the market, that market segment is forced to shrink in order to survive. It shrinks by lowering the price to what the market will bear.
| McLean & Great Falls Market Analysis of Homes Sales: A Tale of Two Markets | ||||||
| (Based on Final Closed Price) | ||||||
| >$3 Mil. | $2-3 Mil. | $1.25-2 Mil | $750k-$1.25 Mil | <$750k | ||
| 2008 | ||||||
| 22101 | 16 | 20 | 60 | 111 | 144 | |
| 22102 | 10 | 18 | 25 | 39 | 169 | |
| 22066 | 7 | 8 | 47 | 72 | 41 | |
| Total: 33 | Total: 46 | Total: 132 | Total: 222 | Total: 354 | ||
| Combined Total: 211 | Combined Total: 576 | |||||
| All Sales 2008: 787 | ||||||
| 2009 | ||||||
| 22101 | 3 | 29 | 52 | 142 | 184 | |
| 22102 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 204 | |
| 22066 | 3 | 12 | 38 | 80 | 64 | |
| Total: 13 | Total: 48 | Total: 112 | Total: 273 | Total: 452 | ||
| Combined Total: 173 | Combined Total: 725 | |||||
| All Sales 2009: 898 | ||||||


the list actually goes on and on and on… There are a myriad of reasons why people all over the country are facing difficult times right now – MANY of which are beyond their control. Our economy is in trouble and yes, while we may be on the cusp of seeingsome recovery, for some people, i’s not immediate enough and they are left with few options. Does this feeling sound familiar? If so, read on.
